• 就业市场
    李开复:未来“有惊无险”的10种工作,其中包括人力资源 人工智能并不是一场普通的技术变革,在人类历史上,可与其比肩的只有蒸汽机和电力的推广使用。由于人工智能算法会渗透到每个行业、每个工作,它甚至会改变人类做事的许多方法,对于个人、企业和社会带来的变革,比之前的互联网革命来得更剧烈、影响力更大。人工智能对个人和社会带来的改变,将超过之前发生的所有工业革命和技术革命。 人工智能带动了科技发展,提升了生产力,这些好处固然引人关注,但是比起全球各地将产生的严重失业问题,以及分配不均的加剧(国内与国家之间),就不足为道了。随着深度学习应用的普及,人工智能势必会冲击全球经济,整个经济体系上上下下数十亿的就业机会如会计师、流水线作业员、仓储作业员、股市分析师、质检员、货车司机、律师助理、放射科医生等,都会受到冲击,并且上述工作只是其中的一部分。 人类文明过去曾经成功地消弭了科技对经济造成的冲击,例如在19世纪和20世纪,有数亿的农民成功地转为了工厂员工。但是,先前的那些重大科技变迁,从诞生到发展的速度没有人工智能这么快。照目前科技发展和应用的趋势来看,我预估在未来15年内,人工智能将会减少美国40%到50%的就业机会,但实际的就业损失还会延迟若干年,因为必须考虑到很多现实因素,例如雇主相信人工智能的程度、法规限制等。但我预测,人工智能对就业市场的冲击将会非常大,而且冲击很快就会到来。 有朋友跟我探讨:我经过多年学习培训才获取足够的技能从事的工作,未来应该会比“蓝领工人”安全吧? 实际情况并非如此。分析人工智能取代工作岗位,不能仅仅用传统“低技能”对比“高技能”的单一维度来分析。人工智能既会产生赢家,也会产生输家,这取决于具体工作内容。尽管人工智能可以在基于数据优化的少数工作中远胜人类, 但它无法自然地与人类互动,肢体动作不像人类那么灵巧,也做不到创意地跨领域思考或其他一些需要复杂策略的工作(因为这些工作投入的要素和结果无法轻易量化)。一些人类看上去很难的工作,在人工智能看来可能是非常简单的;一些在人类看上去很简单的工作,可能确实人工智能的死穴。我们可以用以下两张图来说明: 对于体力劳动来说,X轴左边是“低技能、结构化”,右边是“高技能、非结构化”。Y轴下边是“弱社交”,上边是“强社交”。脑力劳动图的Y轴与体力劳动一样(弱社交到强社交),但X轴不同:左侧是“优化型”,右侧是“创意或决策型”。如果脑力劳动的重点是将数据中可量化的变量最大化(例如设置最优保险费率或最大化退税),就归类为“优化型”的职业。 这几条轴将两张图各分为四个象限:第三象限是“危险区”,第一象限是“安全区”,第二象限是“结合区”,第四象限是“慢变区”。工作内容主要落在“危险区”的工作(如卡车司机等)在未来几年面临着被取代的高风险。“安全区”的工作(如心理治疗师、理疗师等)在可预见的未来中不太可能被自动化。“结合区”和“慢变区”象限的界限并不太明确:尽管目前不会完全被取代,但工作任务的重组或技术的稳定进步,可能引起针对这些工作岗位的大范围裁员。 在左上角的“结合区”中,大部分计算和体力性质的工作已经可以由机器完成,但关键的社交互动部分使它们难以完全自动化。所以,最可能产生的结果就是幕后优化工作由机器完成,但仍需要人类员工来做客户的社交接口,人类和机器形成共生关系。此类工作可能包括服务员、理财顾问甚至全科医生。这些工作消失的速度和比例取决于公司改造员工工作内容的灵活程度,以及客户对于与计算机互动心态的开放程度。 落在“慢变区”的工作(如水暖工、建筑工人、美术设计师等)不依赖于人类的社交技能,而依赖灵活和巧妙的手工、创造性或适应非结构化环境的能力。这些仍是人工智能的短板。由于不断发展的技术会在未来几年中慢慢提升这些短板,所以此象限中工作消失的速度,更多地取决于人工智能能力的实际扩展。 在我看来,警告、悲观、恐慌是“不识庐山真面目”的杞人忧天。以下是我整理的看似很危险,其实很难被AI取代的10种工作。 人力资源 人力资源、特别是员工招聘和猎头工作,都要涉及大量的人际互动。说服某人放弃现有工作、考虑其他工作是相当不容易的,这需要建立在对对方的长期深入了解和互相信任的基础上。当然,随着人力资源工作变得更倾向于以人为中心,人力资源行业也会利用AI完成常规的问答工作(比如回复雇员的邮件)、监督雇员工作表现、发起招聘启事、筛选求职者并进行工作匹配等。 健身教练 尽管未来总会有更高质量、更智能的健身器材帮助我们锻炼,但健身教练无可取代的地方在于,他们能为我们每个人量身打造健身计划,在旁陪练指导,还能敦促我们坚持锻炼,避免犯拖延症。其次,随着社会财富增多,出行方式变得更高效(如智能型、甚至是自动型电动平衡车),我们对于锻炼的需求将大大超出以往。最后,AI时代会给我们带来更多的社会财富和闲暇时间,自助、娱乐和健康将成为发展的主题。 养老护理员 到2030年,麦肯锡医疗保健类工作岗位将在全球范围内猛增5100万个,总数将高达8100万个。这类工作包括养老护理员、家庭健康护理员、私人护理员以及护士助理,不过最大的岗位空缺将出现在与养老护理相关的领域。考虑到人类寿命延长、老年人对医疗保健的大量需求以及填补此类工作空缺的难度,这一需求还会不断攀升。AI固然可以实现老年人的医疗监护、安全保障和移动辅助等基本功能,但像是洗澡、穿衣以及更为重要的聊天和陪伴工作,都是AI是无法胜任的,只能交由人类完成。 房屋清洁工 像房屋清洁、园艺以及其他需要在非固定结构空间内进行、且所在环境较为多变的工作,对于机器人而言难度太大。虽然像伦巴扫地机器人(Roomba)这样的智能设备会承担部分工作量,但整体而言,这类工作的就业水平有望得以维持。此外,我们预测,各类移民服务岗位将大量增加(在法律允许的前提下),因为AI将进一步拉大贫富国家之间的差距。 护士 护士、保育员、心理健康辅导员以及戒毒治疗师是最难被机器替代的工作类型之一,这类工作涉及大量的人际互动、沟通和信任的培养。例如,治疗情绪不稳定、有抑郁症状的病人需要娴熟的沟通技巧,治疗师需要先了解造成病人情绪困扰的根源。这些都远远超出了AI技术目前的能力范围。 楼房管理员 楼房管理、酒店管理、定制服务等其他高端服务将是财富新贵群体的高需求所在(如AI企业家和工程师)。在互联网(旅游网站)和AI(自动化快餐和咖啡)提供标准化服务的同时,那些具有人情味、个性化以及能够构建长期关系和信任感的优质服务将具有更高的价值。在AI时代,休闲和娱乐产业将成为强劲的增长领域。 运动员 虽然未来机器将比人类更擅长比赛,但体育运动不会因此而受到丝毫的影响。这些都是需要人类参与的娱乐活动。运动明星与知名歌手、演员并无二致。随着人们闲暇时间的增加,拥有非凡天赋和个人魅力的运动员将有更强的吸金能力。 保姆 保姆是最讨喜的工作之一,甚至可能会被当成家庭成员来看待。保姆的许多体力工作会实现自动化(比如除尘和洗碗),如此一来,他们的工作会逐渐转向“关爱和个性化”服务,比如悉心烹饪一顿孩子爱吃的饭菜,或是朗读孩子最爱听的故事。保姆将花更多的时间去陪伴、照料家里的孩子,和他们玩耍。能够成功转型的保姆是AI无法替代的。 导游 优秀的导游是擅长讲故事的人。他们将个人经验和百科知识巧妙地融合在一起,并以戏剧化的方式呈现给游客,从而打造出独一无二的旅行体验。优秀的导游还能挑起趣味横生、内容丰富的谈话,创造出一段令人怀念的旅程。当然,那些照本宣科、一味重复的导游,在AI取代人类工作的大潮中就没那么走运了。 数据处理和标签 最后来个大惊喜。虽然每个人都认为数据录入和处理会因机械化而被淘汰(甚至不需用到AI)。但在未来二十年内,AI进行的训练会用到规模庞大且不断增长的数据。这些数据需要经过初期的人工筛选、处理、贴标签和分类。亚马逊土耳其机器人(Amazon Mechanical Turk)就是个很好的例子。不过,可别期待能从这类工作中获得高薪。     原文来源:李开复:未来“有惊无险”的10种工作  
    就业市场
    2018年09月18日
  • 就业市场
    LinkedIn 发布2017美国新兴工作岗位报告 在美国,现在的就业市场充满了新的机会,新的工作机会对于求职者来说也意味着有了潜在可能性。 在未来的十年内,美国劳动统计局预测会创造出11.5百万个工作机会,甚至未来65%的孩子将从事着现在还不存在的工作岗位。 为了找出什么是更有前途的岗位和更能带来成功的技能,我们分析了LinkedIn过去5年间的数据,来寻找哪些岗位和技能处于上升趋势,并对这些趋势在未来的工作市场中代表了什么进行了分析。 从中我们发现了: 技术为王 软技能的必要性 高流动性的岗位处于上升趋势 有才能的人在顶尖岗位中供不应求 面向未来的技能非常重要 在过去的5年内,技术岗位的激增并没有使我们感到惊讶。十一月的劳动报告中指出,在硬件行业,招聘率增长了近10%,同时从去年10月起到现在,软件行业,招聘率增长了近15%。 以下为2017美国TOP 20新兴岗位排行榜: 更多详细信息欢迎点击链接查看原文: https://economicgraph.linkedin.com/research/LinkedIns-2017-US-Emerging-Jobs-Report     The explosion of tech roles over the past five years comes as no surprise given the impact of technology in every sector. Our November Workforce Report noted that hiring is up nearly 10% in the hardware industry, and nearly 15% in the software industry from October 2016. Specifically, the growth and widespread application of more sophisticated technology - like artificial intelligence - we are seeing more specialized machine learning and data-specific roles top the list of emerging jobs. These jobs are also widely available outside the technology industry. The number of customer experience roles that made the list indicates that the “age of the customer” was more than jargon. These jobs are among some of the non-automatable jobs on the market today, and the skills associated with them aren’t necessarily taught in university, as they rely heavily on soft skills. There can’t be emerging jobs without some jobs being replaced. When looking at the roles that are starting to lose steam in today’s professional landscape, two trend stands out: Comprehensive sets of skills that cover multiple disciplines are seemingly in higher demand. Many of the roles on this list cover multiple disciplines and are applicable to multiple industries. Certain specialist roles are on the decline. From specialized developer roles, to legal specialists, and even specialized logistics roles, we are seeing these roles be replaced in favor of more comprehensive skill sets and job titles. For example, Flash-related roles are on the decline as the technology loses steam in favor of more big data and machine learning roles. Software engineers are feeding into nearly all of these emerging jobs. We looked back at the career paths of professionals who hold these top 5 roles to get a sense for where they were in their careers 5 years ago, and what we found is encouraging for professionals no matter their career journey or the types of skills they have. In analyzing the career path of professionals who hold one of the top 5 emerging jobs, there was a common thread throughout: software engineers are feeding into all of the technology-related professions. Sales Development Representatives, while growing rapidly, is still an entry-level role and a great option for those looking to break into any industry. In fact, this is one of the most popular roles for recent graduates. Machine Learning Engineer 1. Software Engineer 2. Research Assistant 3. Teaching Assistant 4. Data Scientist 5. System Engineer Data Scientist 1. Research Assistant 2. Teaching Assistant 3. Software Engineer 4. Data Scientist 5. Business Analyst Sales Development Representative 1. Server 2. Sales Associate 3. Account Manager 4. Administrative Assistant 5. Customer Service Representative Customer Success Manager 1. Account Manager 2. Project Manager 3. Customer Service Representative 4. Program Manager 5. Sales Manager Big Data Developer 1. Software Engineer 2. Hadoop Developer 3. System Engineer 4. Java Engineer 5. ETL Developer Among these emerging jobs, some of them offer more mobility for those looking to explore new cities or industries, while others are more limited.Let’s take a look at the jobs that are widely available in cities across the country, but have fewer opportunities to pivot to a different industry… These Are the Jobs Available in Many Cities, But Few Industries Roles in the real estate, fitness, or retail space tend to be more widely distributed across U.S. regions. However, while these roles offer more options for location mobility, there are fewer options to pivot industries. Licensed Realtor Brand Partner Independent Travel Agent Brand Activation Manager Barre Instructor These Are the Jobs That Offer Industry Mobility, But Are Concentrated in the U.S.’s 10 Largest Metros These are jobs that are highly concentrated in the top 10 largest urban areas in the United States, but span across several industries. Many of the emerging roles in tech are concentrated in urban areas, like San Francisco, New York and Los Angeles. When looking at industry mobility among these emerging roles, many of them skew heavily towards the software and IT skill set, but provide opportunities across nearly every industry. Head of Partnerships Head of Customer Experience Data Scientist iOS App Developer User Experience Researcher Most Common Skills Among Emerging Jobs According to a recent survey conducted by LinkedIn and Capgemini, nearly 30% of professionals believe their skills will be redundant in the next 1-2 years, if they aren’t already, with another 38% stating they believe their skills will be outdated within the next 4-5 years. This feeling is largely driven by lack of access to adequate training to stay abreast of new - largely digital - skills that are necessary to be successful in today’s fast-paced jobs landscape. We looked at the skills that were most strongly represented among the top 20 emerging jobs. While many of these roles require specialized experience or an advanced degree, one thing remains constant: soft skills are important across the board. You’ll also notice these skills encompass a range of professions from marketing, to engineering, to sales, and it’s likely many possess at least one. Management Sales Communication Marketing Start-Ups Python Software Development Analytics Cloud Computing Retail We also took a look at the skills that were growing the fastest across these professions, and the same trend emerged: soft skills are represented across the board, as well as basic computer literacy. We noticed skills like social media, Microsoft Office, and digital marketing skills were on the rise across a number of these emerging jobs. Most Important Soft Skills (According to Hiring Managers) For those not interested in roles associated with the above skills - never fear, soft skills are an incredibly important part of being a fit for any role and more than 60% of hiring managers told us they had a hard time screening for them. We surveyed more than 1,200 hiring managers to find out what they’re looking for in a candidate when it comes to soft skills: Adaptability Culture Fit Collaboration Leadership Growth Potential Prioritization Learn more about how to prepare to talk about these skills in an interview, in this blog post. These Are the Top Skills for the Top 5 Emerging Jobs When looking more granularly at the skills most common among professionals in the top 5 emerging jobs, we’re able to get a clearer picture of the skills needed to be successful in these roles. Whether it’s understanding the ins and outs of enterprise software to help customers, or specialized engineering and programming skills - it’s clear that technology has become a part of nearly every role. The rise of customer success managers can likely be attributed to the explosion of Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) offerings, a theory that holds true when looking at the skills these professionals possess. Two of the top five skills for this role are related to enterprise and SaaS software know-how. If professionals don’t have the hard tech skills needed, or aren’t interested in pursuing a career in engineering or development, but want to work in the technology industry, pivoting to a more customer-centric role is a great way to get a foot in the door. Machine Learning Engineer             1. Machine Learning 2. Research 3. Algorithms 4. Software 5. Deep Learning Data Scientist             1. Data Science 2. Machine Learning 3. Analytics 4. Data Mining 5. Python         Sales Development Representative             1. Sales 2. Sales Management 3. Business Development 4. Account Planning 5. Start-Ups        Customer Success Manager             1. Management 2. Software as a Service 3. Enterprise Software 4. Sales 5. Customer Success Management        Big Data Developer             1. Big Data 2. Hadoop 3. Java 4. [Apache] Hive 5. Start-Ups Skills Trending On the Decline When analyzing the skills that are on the decline among these roles, a couple trends stood out. The increasing focus on digital skills and digital experiences, meaning skills like “shopper marketing” - that are traditionally focused on understanding shopping habits in physical stores - are on the decline. Additionally, as noted above, legacy technology skills associated with older technology systems like Java are also decreasing across the more technology-focused roles. Extremely saturated and general skills like “strategy” and “marketing” are being replaced by more specific skills associated with these professions, for example “integrated marketing.” Beyond emerging roles, we’re seeing a surge of freelance professionals in the United States, and they’re often choosing to pursue freelance work as a side hustle to a full-time job. So much so that in a recent survey of freelance professionals, a quarter of them told us their freelance work is in an entirely different professional field than their full-time career. In fact, the skills associated with one of our emerging jobs, Barre Instructor, indicates this is a freelance job on the side that U.S. professionals are embracing.However, this is often more than just a side hustle; in the same survey, nearly 20% of freelancers indicated they will make six figures or more this year with freelance work alone. What’s more, freelancers are driving more workforce growth than traditional 9-to-5ers. Where The Growth Is Happening Growth in the freelance sector is booming, especially for legacy industries including retail and healthcare, and oil and energy. Industry Sector Freelance 5-Year Growth Non-Freelance 5-Year Growth Healthcare 47% 20% Retail & Consumer Products 42% 5% Staffing 41% 30% Oil & Energy 39% 9% Professional Services 34% 15% The states where freelancers are seeing the most growth also might surprise you. The freelance population is growing quickly in the South and Midwest, but for now remains heavily concentrated on the coasts in New York, California, and Oregon. State Freelance 5-Year Growth Non-Freelance 5-Year Growth North Dakota 45% 24% Louisiana 44% 17% Mississippi 44% 16% District to Columbia 41% 17% West Virginia 40% 16% What This All Means It may come as no surprise that technology-centric roles stole the show among emerging jobs in the United States, but the prevalence of machine learning and data science roles and skills indicate a shift in the types of technology we can expect to be using in the near future, as well as what professionals should be preparing themselves for. Having an academic background and a comprehensive suite of skills were also strong trends, especially among professionals who are now machine learning engineers and data scientists. Both of these roles are also often held by professionals with 10 years or more of professional experience, so for those just starting out and having trouble landing one of these titles, don’t be discouraged! It’s always a good reminder that soft skills will always be important, no matter the profession. The ability to collaborate, be a leader, and learn from colleagues will stand out in interviews, and even more once starting a job. Methodology: The results of this analysis represent the world seen through the lens of LinkedIn data. As such, it is influenced by how members choose to use the site, which can vary based on professional, social, and regional culture, as well as overall site availability and accessibility. These variances were not accounted for in the analysis. We looked at all members who list dated work experience on their profile and grouped the millions of unique, user-inputted job titles based on common job roles (which have many permutations). For example, the “machine learning engineer” job title includes user inputted titles such as “machine learning software engineer” and “machine learning engineer II.” We then counted the frequencies of job titles that were held in 2012 and compared the results to job titles that were held in 2017. “Emerging jobs” refers to the job titles that saw the largest growth in frequency over that 5 year period. To determine common career paths, we looked at members who list a current position with one of the “emerging" job titles and counted the frequencies of job titles these members held in 2012. The availability of jobs by region and by industry are based on the company and location information of members who currently hold these job titles. 原文地址:https://economicgraph.linkedin.com/research/LinkedIns-2017-US-Emerging-Jobs-Report  
    就业市场
    2017年12月12日
  • 12